Neues oder weiterhin Altbekanntes aus der Klimaforschung – eine Ãœbersicht von Richard Alley

14.Juli 2013

Demnächst, im Herbst erscheint der 5. IPCC Assessment Report, wissenschaftliche Grundlagen. Die Ergebnisse von tausenden von Arbeiten, die seit dem 4. Report erschienen sind, werden darin ausgewertet. Unter Beteiligung aller Klimaforscher wird kritisch hinterfragt, welche Ergebnisse robust sind bzw. wo noch Unsicherheiten bestehen, wo das bisherige Bild bestätigt wurde oder revidiert werden muss. Die Vielzahl von Informationen macht es für den Laien aber nicht einfach, aus solchen umfassenden Übersichten das Wesentliche und das Neue herauszufinden.

Einschätzungen erfahrener und kompetenter Klimaforscher sind deshalb äusserst hilfreich. Nicht der Abgleich mit anderen Kollegen sondern persönliche Bewertungen und Schwerpunktsetzungen stehen dabei im Vordergrund. Ein hervorragendes Beispiel ist ein Vortrag den Richard Alley an der AGU (American Geophysical Union) Chapman Conference über “Kommunikation der Klimawissenschaft” vom 8. bis 13. Juni gehalten hat. Diese Konferenz widmet sich der vertieften Diskussion spezifischer aktueller wissenschaftlicher Fragen unter Fachkollegen.

Richard Alley ist ein vielfach ausgezeichneter Professor für Geowissenschaften an der Pennsylvania State University. In einem früheren Beitrag haben wir über seine Forschung berichtet.

Was findet Alley erwähnenswert?

Zunächst vor allem die Bestätigung bisheriger Forschungsergebnisse. Insbesondere geht er ausführlicher auf die kürzlich publizierten Arbeiten einer Gruppe von Forschern ein, die aus vielen Arbeiten die Klimasensitivität aus Paleo-Daten kritisch evaluiert haben. (Paleosens, Making sense of paleoclimate sensitivity). Die Daten aus der Erdgeschichte über einen Zeitraum von über 65 Mio Jahren führen zu einem Sensitivitätsbereich von 2.2 bis 4.8 Grad also ziemlich genau derselbe Bereich, der vom IPCC aus Modellen abgeleitet wurde. Interessanterweise umfassen die Paleo-Daten Perioden der Erdgeschichte mit einem deutliche wärmeren Klima als jetzt und auch Perioden mit kälterem Klima.

Richard Alley ist ausserdem sehr besorgt – auch wenn sein nüchterner wissenschaftlicher Stil das nur ahnen lässt – über die möglichen Auswirkungen des Klimawandels, sofern nicht wirksame Gegenmassnahmen ergriffen werden. Er zitiert neuere Forschungsarbeiten, die eine Abnahme der Nahrungsmittelproduktion bei weiterer Erwärmung nachweisen. Er erwähnt auch eine Arbeit, die sich mit den Auswirkungen eines weiteren Temperaturanstiegs befasst. Teile der Erde könnten schlicht für Menschen unbewohnbar werden.

Wenige Forscher sind bereit, die drastischen Folgen eines weiterhin ungebremsten Klimawandels öffentlich klar zu benennen.  Die Gewissheit, sofort des Alarmismus bezichtigt zu werden, macht die meisten Forscher überaus vorsichtig in ihrer Wortwahl. Dabei müsste sich unser Handeln von möglichen Extrementwicklungen leiten lassen, auch wenn sie eine geringe Wahrscheinlichkeit haben aber eben nicht ausgeschlossen werden können.

 

Autor: Klaus Ragaller

Artikel gespeichert unter: Klima

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